Barry Bonds Career Home Run Analysis

Since baseball season has started, I decided to do a statistical analysis on Barry Bonds career home runs.

From 1986 through 1999 Bonds averaged .052 home runs per plate appearance. Estimating the margin of error gives .005 home runs for a [.047, .057] 95% confidence interval. His career home run per plate appearance was .06 with a 95% confidence error of .002. I calculate his HR/PA as .063 with a 95% confidence error of +/- .007 for his San Francisco years 1993-1999.

However, look at his HR/PA for these years at San Francisco.

2000 .081

2001 .110

2002 .075

2003 .082

2004 .072

All of these HR/PA’s are outside the the 95% confidence intervals mentioned above. And Bonds was 35 years old in 2000.

Something changed dramatically for Bonds in 2000. Inquiring minds like mine want to know.

Published in: on May 20, 2009 at 1:35 pm  Leave a Comment  

Asleep at the wheel

A lot of people have been writing us asking, “what’s the scoop on you State Street? You don’t write; you don’t call. You aren’t in love again? That would be so icky.” No, we are not in love again. We just abandoned ourselves to Non-Euclidean geometry during the long dreary winter months.

We’ll be back again shortly. And not just when we fall in love again.

Published in: on May 7, 2009 at 7:25 pm  Leave a Comment  


When is a love affair over? You try to put a final period at the end of its last sentence, yet it refuses an ending. Love always begs to write one more sentence, defying the desire to put a last flourish on the whole. Love’s embers flare and spark and rekindle , searing the heart. Love is a book never finished.

Published in: on May 5, 2009 at 9:28 am  Leave a Comment