Barry Bonds Career Home Run Analysis

Since baseball season has started, I decided to do a statistical analysis on Barry Bonds career home runs.

From 1986 through 1999 Bonds averaged .052 home runs per plate appearance. Estimating the margin of error gives .005 home runs for a [.047, .057] 95% confidence interval. His career home run per plate appearance was .06 with a 95% confidence error of .002. I calculate his HR/PA as .063 with a 95% confidence error of +/- .007 for his San Francisco years 1993-1999.

However, look at his HR/PA for these years at San Francisco.

2000 .081

2001 .110

2002 .075

2003 .082

2004 .072

All of these HR/PA’s are outside the the 95% confidence intervals mentioned above. And Bonds was 35 years old in 2000.

Something changed dramatically for Bonds in 2000. Inquiring minds like mine want to know.

Published in: on May 20, 2009 at 1:35 pm  Leave a Comment  

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