Chicago baseball and intentional walks

Let’s face it, some mornings we are destined to write about what’s on the top of our minds.  Chicago baseball is on the top of mine.  The Cubs despite all the chaos on the field, in the dugout, and in the front office trail the Cards by a mere 2.5 games at mid season.  The White Sox have won seven straight and have closed to within 2.5 games of Detroit.

It appears that no team will run away with the National League Central Division.  The winner will probably be a handful of games over .500.  That is a good thing for my Cubs, for I don’t see them playing the kind of baseball people expected from them before the season started.  I could list their ills, but you’ve heard it all before.

Yesterday’s Cubs win over the Brewers was interesting.  The Brewers intentionally loaded the bases in the bottom of the 10th inning in hopes of achieving a force out to end the inning.  They walked another batter though, and the Cubs scored the winning run without needing a firecracker or sparkler to do the job.

Loading the bases to get the force out seems like a plausible play right up until when it doesn’t work.  I wonder what a statistical analysis would say about the maneuver.  A study sounds interesting, but I expect one would have to go through a randomly selected set of score cards to get the data after carefully defining the problem.  It could take a long time to gather comparison data.

On the other hand, might there not be a clever Monte Carlo simulation one could run against the problem?  I’ll report back if I come up with an answer.

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Published in: on July 4, 2009 at 9:34 am  Leave a Comment  

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